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CJ WittWhen Erik Karlsson was first traded to the San Jose Sharks it was supposed to make this team a contender for years to come. Instead, in the three seasons that Karlsson has been a Shark the team has missed the playoffs in two of the three seasons. San Jose made the conference finals in 2019 and has yet to return to the postseason.
After that season Karlsson re-signed with the Sharks for 8 years for a whopping $92 million. That makes his cap hit $11.5m a season. I don't have to remind Sharks fans of that. Karlsson has underperformed that contract since it was signed. It also arguably cost the team the ability to sign then captain Joe Pavelski. He has since gone on to Dallas and does what he does. For Sharks fans, he was a fan favorite, he was also possibly the heart and sole of this franchise. That is beside the point however. What matters is the here, and the now. Right now, Karlsson is a Shark. One of the biggest problems with his tenure in San Jose so far, seems to be luck. Karlsson was traded to San Jose on the first day of training camp in 2018. The trade took place on September 13th, yet he was unable to practice with his new team for several days. His first practice came on the 18th. From the beginning Karlsson was playing catch up. That happens, whatever. I can't imagine it's ever easy to be traded or go to a new team and learn a new system, learn a new way of doing things, and at the same time, move to a new city in a new country. That doesn't sound fun. Of course, all of that and people expecting you to play hockey or a sport at an incredibly high level. Doesn't sound fair does it? The point I'm trying to make is simply this. If Karlsson had his way, I'm sure that trade would have come at least a week or two earlier to make the transition tad easier. You could tell he was not quite settled when the season started that year. Defensively he was not great and he wasn't scoring that much either. In October of that year he just scored 7 points, all assists, in 12 games. The team was struggling as well. In the first two months of the season the Sharks were 12-9-5. That's not exactly lighting the world on fire after a major offseason move. Then December hit and Karlsson and the Sharks started to take off again. From November to January Karlsson scored 36 points in 35 games. He also made a little bit of history in that time as well. In December and January the team went 17-7-2. During that time, every seemed to start clicking. Then starts the bad luck again. In mid January Karlsson injured his groin. That injury seemed to stick with him for a long time, even into the next season. He missed all but the final game of the 2018-19 season. He played in all but one game in the 2019 playoffs, that was the game San Jose got eliminated by the St. Louis Blues in game 6 of the conference final. Again, that groin injury seemed to affect him the next season as well. Making the conference final obviously means the recovery time isn't as long. Maybe he didn't fully recover in the offseason. I'm in no position to make that call. All I know is he didn't look right during the 2019-20 season. He also broke his thumb late in 2020, not long before the COVID stoppage and he would miss the remainder of the Sharks season. Then to make things even worse, the Sharks would not play another game until January thanks to the pandemic. That's plenty of time to recover from injuries, but playing during a pandemic is not the most ideal situation ever. Karlsson and the Sharks wouldn't even play a home game in San Jose until a month after the season started due to local laws prohibiting contact sports in Santa Clara county. In an incredibly difficult season, starting the year on a month long road trip, that can't be the most fun thing any one has ever done. The Sharks would miss the playoffs again that season. Now we move on to this season. seemingly almost a clean slate. The moral around the team seemed good to start the season. Some "problems" may have been removed from the team, at least in the early going. Young guys came into the team looking ready to contribute. And, oh yeah, of course, the team jumps out to a 4-0-0 start. On top of all that, Karlsson looks pretty good again. Has he looked like the Norris winning Karlsson of the mid 2010's? No, but that is probably unrealistic expectations anyways. He's looked pretty good and he is putting up some points. He scored just 22 points in 52 games in the shortened 2021 season. To start this season he had scored 6 points in 7 games. The team was looking good. Karlsson was looking like he was going to have some kind of a rebound season. Then enter the bad luck...once again. As we speak, the Sharks are dealing with a COVID outbreak in their team. Karlsson is one of the players who has tested positive and will miss at least two games thanks to that. To make matters worse, it has been reported that some of the Sharks who have tested positive actually have symptoms of COVID. It doesn't matter who it is. Whoever has it, we can only hope they get better quickly and don't have any long term effects. But just add this to the list of things that Erik Karlsson has had to deal with in his relatively short time as a San Jose Shark. Every professional athlete has to deal with things. On and off of their respective playing surfaces. Most of the stuff they deal with we don't even know or have any business knowing. However, when talking about Erik Karlsson, we know what he's had to deal with. Both not long before becoming a San Jose Shark and since becoming a part of "team teal". Since joining San Jose, he has had to deal with joining a team mid training camp. He to adjust quickly with massive expectations. He got injured, affecting his play for months and months. Got another injury the next season. Had a season stopped due to a pandemic. Played the next season during a pandemic, spending a month on the road during said pandemic. Now when everything seems to be going back to normal, at least somewhat, his team is hit with a COVID outbreak and he tests positive. Again, I'm not hoping anyone has it in particular. Being sick at all sucks. But for Karlsson, who has already had to deal with a ton in his life since 2017 or 2018, as a human, you have to hope he doesn't get sick with COVID. Because knowing his luck, right when things start to look good again, something will happen knocking him back down.
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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports As a follower of three teams that will make the playoffs this season this is a topic that has been brought up a lot. How well does a team, that really doesn't have that much to play for, need to play before the playoffs start?
It's an interesting question. You get the concern, as fans I think it's us who want confidence going into the playoffs possibly even more than the team itself. Even so, you will hear both players and coaches talk about finishing strong and making sure you're playing "the right way" going into the postseason. As fans, what kind of record should we be looking for heading into the playoffs? In a perfect world you want to win every game. In the last stretch of the season you probably want to go 10-0-0. If you don't feel confident in that then I just don't know what you want. Odds are that just isn't going to happen. Let's look at this more realistically. What record should teams that are locked into a playoff position be looking for? Let's go back to 2015 to figure this out. We'll look at every year since then and the teams we'll look at is the Stanley Cup winner and the other conference champion. In 2015 the Chicago Blackhawks won their most recent Stanley Cup. It was possibly their worst team to win the Stanley Cup, but that's just my opinion and irrelevant here. They went up against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That was the first Lightning team that started this good run for Tampa. Since then they have made two other conference finals. How did these two teams do the last ten games of the regular season? Blackhawks -- 4-6. 2-4 their last four games and ended the season on a 4 game losing streak. Lightning -- 6-3-1, 3-0-1 their last four games. Now lets skip ahead to 2016. The first of Pittsburgh's back to back Cup wins. They went up against the San Jose Sharks in a match-up of two of the best teams in the league since December of that season. Penguins -- 8-2, 5-1 their last six games. Sharks -- 5-5, 3-1 their last four games. Fast forward to 2017 where the Penguins were the first team to win back to back Cups since the Detroit Red Wings in the late 1990's. They went up against the Nashville Predators who that year was the eighth seed in the western conference. Penguins -- 4-4-2, 3-2 their last five games. Predators -- 5-4-1, 2-2-1 their last five games. Last but not least we go to 2018 where the Washington Capitals ended a lot of misery and won their first Stanley Cup. They defeated a dumbfounding Las Vegas Golden Knights who in their first year went all the way to the Final. Capitals -- 8-2, 3-1 their last four games. Knights -- 5-3-2, 1-2 their last three games. That's four seasons of results. That's eight teams going as far as they can. Do we see a trend? Not really. The only thing that can be said is you don't want to go into the playoffs playing bad hockey but it has been done recently with the Blackhawks having a losing record and a losing streak heading into the playoffs in 2015. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports For stars to win Stanley Cups they need help from their teammates. When Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane won the Cup in 2010 it was big contributions from Patrick Shark and Dustin Byfuglien. Patrice Bergeron had Brad Marchand (before he himself was a star) in 2011. Even the great Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin didn't win Cups on their own, in 2016 they had Phil Kessel and huge goals from Nick Bonino. The 2018 Washington Capitals were no different. Alex Ovechkin will get all the attention, that's just the way it is. When stars win it's because they led their team, when they lose it falls on their shoulders. Same can be said for his partner in crime Nicklas Backstrom. Finally the dynamic duo had some big help in the playoffs. That help came in the form of Evgeny Kuznetsov. The young Russian had been on the team for a few seasons before and had some good regular seasons but the one postseason where he was great the Capitals put their names in the history books. Going into last years playoffs Kuznetsov had 19 career playoff points in three postseason runs. Last year alone he amassed 32 points. He was a definite contender for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. That award ultimately went to his star teammate Ovechkin (remember what we said about stars taking the glory when things go good). This season has been somewhat of a confusing season for the twenty-six year old center. Looking at his stats alone it's been a fine year, 18 goals and 63 points in 66 games played. Not bad. When you look at splits though it shows the weirdness that has been Evgeny Kuznetsov's season. Look at goal and point totals by month, October -- 5 Goals, 15 Points 10 Games played November -- 1 Goal, 7 Points 9 Games played December -- 1 Goal, 12 Points 13 Games played January -- 2 Goals, 7 Points 12 Games played February -- 8 Goals, 17 Points 14 Games played March (so far) -- 1 Goal , 5 Points 8 Games played Inconsistent is probably the word to use here. he'll have a great month followed by a down month, then a good month followed by another down month. Another split that is shocking is the home and road split. Home games -- 16 Goals, 42 Points 33 Games played Road games -- 2 Goals, 21 Points 33 Games played Just two goals in 33 away games. That's somewhat incredible. Maybe it has something to do with effort. It's easier to play at home when you have your fans there to energize you. How much effort someone gives is hard to judge no matter what other people say, you never really know how much effort someone is truly giving. That being said, there are games and stretches where Kuznetsov can be a fairly invisible player. Games where, unless your looking for him don't really see him. For a player with as much skill and talent as Kuznetsov that can be pretty infuriating. Kuznetsov's uneven play hasn't affected the Capitals too much this season. They are still battling for first place in the division and, in my opinion, they will get that number one seed in the Metro division. Come playoff time however Washington is going to need number ninety-two to be at his best. So what's that mean? What's the best Kuznetsov look like, at least on paper. Here is his advanced stats from some previous postseasons. 2016 playoffs 55.08 Corsi%, 63.69 Scoring Chance %, 60% High Danger Attempts For 2017 playoffs 53.73 Corsi%, 55.98 Scoring Chance %, 46.84% High Danger Attempts For 2018 playoffs 51.47 Corsi%, 54.23 Scoring Chance %, 53.38 High Danger Attempts For Last season, his best season in terms of scoring, was actually his worst season in the advanced stats category. No matter which season you want to look at he's going to have to bring up his current regular season numbers. Those numbers currently look like this. 48.19 Corsi%, 45.64 Scoring Chance%, 41.19 High Danger Attempts For Can he turn his season around in the snap of a finger? When the playoffs start can he flip the switch, a popular NBA phrase these days. Recent history says he possibly can. Kuznetsov didn't exactly light up last regular season in the advanced stats department either. His stats were. 47.82 Corsi%, 55.66 Scoring Chance%, 47.76 High Danger Attempts For The only difference is the scoring chances. Again, to me, that could be effort. Is he skating hard to area's that give him a good chance to score? Is he skating hard to pucks and setting up chances for his teammates? If Kuznetsov gives a good effort every night he has the skill to get goals and has a ton of skill to set up chances for his teammates. Playing with Ovechkin, if he sets up chances we've seen what the "Great Eight" can do. That's what it comes down to for me. If Kuznetsov wants to, he can be one of the best. If he puts in his best we've seen what he can do come spring time and where that takes the Capitals. CJ Witt Stephen R. Sylvanie, USA TODAY Sports Marc-Andre Fleury has been a top goaltender in the best hockey league in the world for a long time now. He's currently in his fifthteenth season as an NHL goalie and in most of those he was a no doubt starter. He has been truly impressive. Just like most other athletes across sports you don't often see someone stay towards the top for nearly fifteen years.
Yet, here we are. The thirty-four year old Vegas Golden Knights netminder leads the entire NHL in wins (35) and shutout (8). His season stats are solid, right on par with his career average if not a little better. He currently has a 2.46 goals against average accompanied by a .914 save percentage. The talk around the Golden Knights the past two seasons going into the playoffs has been the same. It's a very good team, deep at forward, plays hard both on offense and defense and you don't have to worry about Marc-Andre Fleury in goal. I can agree with almost all that. Except the Fleury part. In no way am I saying that Fleury isn't a good playoff goalie. Fleury has three Stanley Cup rings to his name being a huge part in two of them, the win in 2009 where he won all sixteen games and another in 2017 when he won nine of the sixteen. When Fleury is good, he is very good. He can take a team far into the playoffs and win series nearly all by himself. A series I think of when I think about how good he can be in the playoffs is last years match-up vs Los Angeles. Vegas played terrifically that series, but the reason they swept that series was because Fleury was nearly unbeatable. That's the good side. The problem with Fleury is consistency. He has never had three straight postseasons with a save percentage over 90%. On top of that, he has played on great teams with big expectations and cost his teams dearly. Notably the 2012 playoffs with the Penguins vs the Flyers. The Penguins were one of the best teams in the NHL that year. Finally having a healthy Crosby and Malkin along with the likes of James Neal, Jordan Staal, Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik, Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Paul Martin, Matt Cooke etc. And you had one of the best goaltenders in Fleury. That series Fleury looked lost in net for whatever reason posting a GAA of 4.63 and a save percentage of .834%. The Penguins didn't play perfectly that series, no doubt, but the number of scoring chances against and high danger attempts against actually went down from the regular season. In the season they allowed 18.60 scoring chances a game and 8.23 high danger attempts against a game. That series they allowed 16.16 chances a game and 7.33 high danger attempts a game. The Penguins didn't play great that series but Fleury was a huge reason why that stacked team lost in the first round. Fleury has led his team to the playoffs twelve times in his career. Another great number. However, once against pointing to his inconsistencies he has just six playoff season with a save percentage over .900 and six with a save percentage under .900. That doesn't scream sure thing to me like others continuously say. Who would be an example of sure thing, at least among active NHL goaltenders? Henrik Lundqvist? Maybe he's past his prime, his best days are gone and he may be lucky to taste the playoffs again in his NHL career, (at least if he stays in New York like he wants to) but watching him play in the playoffs and looking at his stats he is a guy you don't have to worry about. Lundqvist led his Rangers team to the playoffs eleven times. In those eleven seasons he has just two seasons with a save percentage under .900 and nine with a .900 save percentage or higher. What about Carey Price? Most think the Canadiens goalie is the best in the world, a lot of current players think this as well. In his eight playoff appearances he has 5 seasons over .900 to three under .900. One goalie I found interesting when looking at goalies was Roberto Luongo. Unfortunately known for underachieving and cracking under pressure. He only played in seven postseasons but he has better numbers in the playoffs than Fleury. His career GAA is 2.49 and save percentage is .918. To compare Fleury's numbers are 2.58 and .911. Luongo also had five postseasons with a save percentage over .900 with just two under that mark. This is in no way a prediction that Fleury will struggle come playoff time. Predictions, I think, are pointless. You look stupid when you're wrong and who really cares when you're right. Still, when I hear people say Fleury is a proven playoff goalie I still don't buy it. Yes, he can be exceptional, but he's also proven he can be a bit of a train wreck at the biggest time of the year. You don't have to worry about Vegas as a team in my opinion. They play the same way almost every night and it is a hard working style. A hard to beat style at that. They are one of the better defensive teams in the NHL this season. They are eighth in scoring chances against, fourteenth in goals against while 5v5. To me, that makes Marc-Andre Fleury to most important player on the Golden Knights. The Knights will have to make it past offensive heavyweights in Calgary in San Jose. If they get even average goaltending I don't think they make a very long run. It's time for Fleury to finally make it three straight impressive playoff performances. If he does, you might be seeing a parade in Las Vegas. CJ Witt
The Canadian Press
When Erik Karlsson was acquired by Doug Wilson and the San Jose Sharks many things were said, almost all of it was good. Things that were said for example was how good the power play was going to be. Another one was how great and deep the defensive group for the Sharks now was, possible the best in the entire NHL.
One thing that was said that now stands out to me was one thing in particular. "Think of how good this will be for Martin Jones and what kind of season will he have?" My apologies, I forget who said that, and I am paraphrasing but that was not an uncommon thought.
Jones' life in goal was supposed to get easier, but so far the results haven't been great, hardly even good. After a somewhat of a difficult start for San Jose where they have played twelve games with nine of them coming on the road, most of those in the eastern time zone, the Sharks are first in the Pacific division with fifteen points and a 6-3-3 record.
Some complaints for the early season have been the power play which has been off and on and the Sharks leaky D which has contributed to some blown leads. A struggling defense can definitely be frustrating but if you have a goaltender who is on his game it can save a lot of headaches. Jones has not been on his game for most of this season. He does have a winning record of 5-3-1 in his nine games played but he carries a pretty average 2.66 goals against average and his save percentage is only .902, pretty bad these days. While 5v5 Jones ranks towards the bottom of NHL goalies in save percentage in nearly every category. According to Corsica.hockey his low danger save% is 94.81 which is second to last in the NHL only better than Vegas' Marc-Andre Fleury who has a 93.83%. Jones medium danger save percentage is 90.91 which puts him in the middle of the pack 22nd of 39. Finally his high danger save percentage is just 75%. That's the 4th lowest save percentage in the league among goalies who has played 200 minutes or more. The only guys who have a worse percentage are, James Reimer - 74.29 Jack Campbell - 70.83 Andrei Vasilevskiy - 52.94 Letting in goals from high danger areas isn't going to make goalies or fans for that matter feel any better. Then again, when you know or hear a commentator say, "Nothing Jones can do about that one" it does give you a little confidence knowing you don't have to worry about the last line of defense. When a goalie isn't stopping enough high danger shots and bailing his team out it can be a really nerve wracking watch. A 75% high danger save percentage isn't going to get it done. Just for comparison sake, backup Aaron Dell is sporting a 86.96 high danger save percentage. What has Jones high danger save percentage been in past seasons? 2017-18 - 81.25 -- 8th out of 28 goalies in the NHL who played 2,000 minutes or more. 2016-17 - 79.29 -- 16th out of 28 goalies in the NHL who played 2,000 minutes or more. 2015-16 - 80.57 -- 9th out of 23 goalies in the NHL who played 2,000 minutes or more. High danger shots against the Sharks aren't much higher this season than past seasons either. 2018-19 - 4.88 high danger shots against per game. 2017-18 - 4.53 high danger shots against per game. 2016-17 - 4.37 high danger shots against per game. 2015-16 - 3.8 high danger shots against per game. Defensively the Sharks have to get better and help Jones out a bit but he also has to bail his team out more than he has early this season. Jones has been fine in past seasons. Looking at previous years I think it tells us he has to raise his high danger save percentage by about 5%. The issue might not be his high danger save percentage though. Watching Sharks games it hasn't been the high danger goals that have been the issue for Jones, it's been weak goals against. Low danger shots that beat the goalie. The Sharks have consistently out shot and out chanced their opponents so far this season, so to be doing that and then their goaltender lets in a weak goal it has got to be a bit demoralizing. Going back to what I showed earlier Jones' low danger save percentage of 94.81 is the second worse in the NHL. Lets look at his previous seasons in that category. 2017-18 - 97.34 2016-17 - 97.83 2015-16 - 98.1 I'm not going to try to say anything creative here, his current percentage won't get it done and he needs to bring that up about 3 or 3.5%. Sharks fans have seen how good this team can be when Martin Jones is playing well. The team overall is playing pretty good right now. Some hiccups and breakdowns every now and then but every team has those during a game. It's up to the goalie to stop the puck when his team needs him. Right now Jones isn't helping his team as much as he needs to. If the team can bring down the high danger shots against and Jones can bring up his low danger save percentage this team should be among the best in the league. CJ Witt Associated Press The start of the 2018-19 NHL season has been an up and down journey for the Washington Capitals. You don't need to look any further than the current standings to realize that. As of today, the 30th of October, the Caps sit outside of the playoffs with a 5-3-2 record, good for 12 points. That's a pretty good record in hockey, but it is just a .500 record with the team losing just as much as winning. Approaching month two of the season and the Capitals have yet to win two games in a row. That being said Washington has only lost two in a row in regulation once, to the Devils on the 11th and the Maple Leafs on the 13th. For this reason, we should call the Capitals season an up and down year so far. After a western Canada trip the Capitals have a little bit of a breather. They have four days between games with the last game in Calgary being played on the 27th and the next game being Thursday the 1st of November in Montreal. With that break we can take a look at the current lineup and see what is and maybe what isn't working in terms of forward lines and defensive pairs. Note: These are the lines and D pairs that were last reported and you very easily could see on Thursday in Montreal. Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Vrana - 14:34 TOI Corsi% - 41.67 (10-14) 1 Goal For - 2 Goals Against 4 Scoring Chances For - 6 Scoring Chances Against 1 High Danger Attempt For - 4 High Danger Attempt Against I'm okay with seeing this line until Tom Wilson returns from his suspension. Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have pretty much had a revolving door on their right and nobody has been able to lock the spot down until Wilson returns. Brett Connolly, Devante Smith-Pelly, Chandler Stephenson and Jakub Vrana have all played next to the two Russians and none of them have helped this line get a Corsi% over 50%. The best line in terms of possession was with DSP with a 46.67 mark. The Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson line posted a 51.1 CF% last season. Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie - 14:34 TOI Corsi% - 66.67 (14-7) 0 Goals For - 0 Goals Against 7 Scoring Chances For - 3 Scoring Chances Against 3 High Danger Attempts For - 1 High Danger Attempt Against This is an interesting line. They haven't played THAT much time together. Clearly this is a line that can play in the other teams zone and keep the puck out of their own net. However with over fourteen minutes played and names that are counted on to score goals, zero goals scored isn't an encouraging sight. Combine that with the top line also having just one goal for and you're asking your bottom six to do some scoring which doesn't look much more encouraging and you're now relying on the power play. Stephenson-Eller-Connolly 8:16 TOI Corsi% - 57.89 (11-8) 1 Goal For - 1 Goal Against 6 Scoring Chances For - 5 Scoring Chances Against 4 High Danger Attempts For - 3 High Danger Attempts Against These guys haven't had much time together, as you can see by far the fewest of any of the four lines. It doesn't scream a lot of goals being scored based on reputation. On the other hand, this lines stats show they have more scoring chances than both the top two lines with the top two lines having almost double the time together with more dangerous scoring threats. If this line can capitalize on their chances it could be a great third line. Jaskin-Dowd-Smith-Pelly 20:36 TOI Corsi% - 35.48 (11-20) 0 Goals For - 0 Goals Against 6 Scoring Chances For - 7 Scoring Chances Against 3 High Danger Attempts For - 3 High Danger Attempts Against Based on the goals for and against you can't say the fourth line is hurting the team. Still, you'd kind of like to see them chip in with a goal or two especially when you see how much time they have played together. It's a fourth line that lets up about two times the shot attempts but they don't let up as as many scoring chances or high danger attempts against. Not the worst line, but lets hope they can chip in a goal every now and then. Kempny-Carlson 112:19 Corsi% - 50.72 (106-103) 5 Goals For - 1 Goal Against 49 Scoring Chances For - 48 Scoring Chances Against 20 High Danger Attempts For - 22 High Danger Attempts Against Not to much to say with these two. This pair will most likely stay the same and with a goal differential like theirs who will complain? Orlov-Niskanen 155:49 Corsi% - 46.62 (131-150) 2 Goals For - 12 Goals Against 56 Scoring Chances For - 76 Scoring Chances Against 9 High Danger Attempts For - 38 High Danger Attempts Against When you have a top DMan like John Carlson they usually take the first pair by default. This is the top pair for the Capitals. The possession numbers aren't great but these are they guys who go up against the best lines from the other team. This is not a great pair on paper. The goal differential is not good, and they let up a lot of scoring chances and way too many high danger chances. Djoos-Orpik 63:49 Corsi% - 57.39 (66-49) 3 Goals For - 4 Goals Against 29 Scoring Chances For - 17 Scoring Chances Against 14 High Danger Attempts For - 6 High Danger Attempts Against Everything looks good from the third D pair except one thing. The most important thing and that is goals. With this pair on the ice the Caps get more scoring chances than they allow and they more than double the high danger attempts they allow. The only thing to look at is save% when the three pairs are on the ice When Carlson and Kempny are on the ice the save% is 97.83% When Orlov and Niskanen are on the ice the save% is 85.88% When Djoos and Orpik are on the ice the save% is 81.82% The stats don't show them giving up a boat load of chances, but they're not getting many saves so that's possibly a reason why they have let up as many goals as they have. CJ WittHas followed the Washington Capitals since the 2009-10 season and have written for or about the team since the 2013-14 season. AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar The Washington Capitals have defied expectations this season. After two hugely disappointing seasons the 2017 summer saw a lot of roster turnover and a lot of key players leaving D.C. Any time someone mentions the 2017/18 Capitals season they mention they players they lost so I’ll spare you the names since you most likely know them already.
Even with the Caps sitting atop possibly the toughest division in hockey for most of the season there is still some questions about how good this team is. Can this team who usually under performs in the playoffs finally make a run, or at least get past the second round. It’s almost impossible to determine who will go far in the postseason or who will win the Stanley Cup by looking at stats. I always tend to look at defensive stats. Poor defensive teams in the regular season tend to not go very far in the playoffs. Even one of the most simple stats, Goals Against Per Game has told us a lot in past years. If you rank high in that stat you’re more likely to get farther in the spring. I’ve stated my affection for that stat in many previous articles so you won’t have to do much digging here to find me mentioning it’s importance. To see if the 17/18 Capitals are truly contenders or not I won’t be strictly relying on this stat, even though it’s not good either. Sixty-one games into the season Washington ranks 19th in goals against average at 2.98. That’s not even close to good enough to consider them a true threat. Lets go a little deeper. We’ll start with the most basic advanced stat there is in hockey today, Corsi%. Teams towards the top in this stat tend to perform better than teams that rank low. The Capitals right now rank……low. With just about twenty games left in the season the Caps rank 23rd in the league with a 47.85 rating. More often than not, this team is getting out attempted and their opponent has the puck more often. But an attempt is just that, it could mean anything. Just because you’re letting up a shot attempt doesn’t mean it’s that dangerous. The Caps could be a great defensive team still. If they keep team to the outside and away from good scoring areas attempts don’t really mean that much. The numbers aren’t very encouraging here either. Washington ranks dead last in High Danger Corsi For%. Their percentage right now is at a pathetic 43.22%. I know people know what dead last means but to put it into more perspective they are below teams like Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Ottawa. Bad teams and teams that have been out of the playoff picture for a long time. Buffalo by the way who ranks 30th is ahead of the Capitals by a pretty big margin, they’re HDCF% is 45.41%. The Capitals are one of only three teams in the entire NHL to allow more than 600 High Danger Attempts against being joined by only the teams from New York, the Rangers (601) and the Islanders (666). The Caps have allowed 624 high danger attempts against. Those 624 attempts against means they allow 10.4 per game. The Islanders allow 10.91 per game and the lowly Sabres allow just 8.13 per game. Maybe we shouldn’t be comparing the Capitals to these teams. After all the Islanders and Sabres don’t have the same expectations or ambitions as Washington does. Lets compare this Capitals team to the teams they want to be like, Cup champions or conference champions. The Pittsburgh Penguins last season we’re 5th in HDCF% at 53.60 and they allowed just 8.93 high danger attempts per game. The Penguins in 2015/16 were 3rd in HDCF% at 55.13 and allowed even less dangerous attempts per game at 7.41. Lets not stop there. The Chicago Blackhawks who won the Stanley Cup in 2015 were not as great in this stat. BUT, they were still OK. Their HDCF% was only ranked 18th but still was at 50.04, way above the Capitals number so far this season. Chicago also gave up only 8.64 high danger attempts a game. If you want to stay in the eastern conference Tampa Bay was very good in these stats in 14/15, the Lightning were 3rd in HDCF% at 55.36 and gave up 7.06 dangerous chances a game. One more. The Los Angeles Kings, a team that basically won their Cups with great defense were 6th in HDCF% in 2014 at 53.87 and allowed only 6.90 high danger attempts a game. Again, since the Caps are in the east we’ll see how the east’s best team was that year. It was the New York Rangers who won the conference in 2014 and they were 4th in HDCF% at 54.10 and allowed 8.65 high danger attempts a game. That’s all the eastern champions and Stanley Cup winners going back to the last lockout in 2013. All the teams are very good or in the Blackhawks case respectable numbers in the high danger category. The Capitals numbers are just bad. You’re never going to see a number or stat and accurately predict who will have success in the playoffs. Maybe the Capitals can buck the trend when it comes to these numbers and these stats. But if I was a betting man, I’m not putting very much money on the Capitals come playoff time. Stick around here, in a few days or so we’ll see how other teams around the NHL are doing is these same stats this season. By CJ Witt The year was 2010. I was seventeen years old, a full year away from graduating high school. Like today I was a huge sports fan. My go to TV channel was ESPN. If I wasn't watching the worldwide leader I was either watching a game on another channel or not watching TV at all. My favorite sport back then? Basketball. A Sacramento Kings fan who was watching his favorite team sputter to another poor season. The good news, Tyreke Evans was having one of the better rookie seasons ever averaging over twenty points per game, five rebounds and five assists per game. He would go on to win NBA rookie of the year that season over Steph Curry. All sports however took a back seat to the Winter Olympics. The 2010 games took place in Vancouver, always great for North Americans as the games happen live and at good times. The events I liked watching the most. Snowboarding and speed skating. Nothing too uncommon, just think of the names in those sports, Shaun White and Apollo Anton Ohno. Guys you still see today almost a decade later. A sport I didn't really care about was hockey. I was not a hockey fan. I had the stereotype stuck in my head, all that sport was were angry, toothless Canadians. It wasn't the United States best sport and they were unlikely to win. I didn't like a sport where it was somewhat legal to actually fight. Sure fights were penalized but in my head, if you fought in a sport you got thrown out and likely suspended. This was a common thought in my family. I remember my mom always saying how she didn't mind the actual sport but the fighting made her hate it. That's why we never watched the National Hockey League. Until 2010. Call me a sucker if you want, it's not something that will hurt my feelings. I got caught up in the run that Team USA went on in the 2010 hockey tournament. With that being said I only watched one game from start to finish and that was the gold medal game, USA vs Canada. That was all I needed. After the first period of that game I was hooked. Still clueless though. The only names I knew were Sidney Crosby and Martin Broduer. Coming into the games I didn't know one American player. Over the course of the tournament I recall hearing a lot about Ryan Miller but I never heard of anyone else. I was so lost during the game, I didn't really know how offside worked, no idea what icing was and even didn't know how overtime worked. When Sidney Crosby scored the OT winner/the golden goal I wasn't sure how to react because I wasn't sure if that mean't the game was over or they kept playing until time expired in OT. After seeing the Canadians pouring off the bench and onto the ice I quickly realized it was over and the heartbreak started. I still have trouble watching that goal to this day. I beg your pardon, I lied. I did know two other Canadian's. I did know, Joe Thornton. Why? I live in northern California. You would OCCASIONALLY (and I mean very rarely) hear Sharks updates/news on the news. The other was obviously another San Jose Shark Patrick Marleau. I didn't know Dany Heatley and I didn't know Dan Boyle until after that game when I looked up the Sharks and saw all their players. Sure enough there was an American on the team in Joe Pavelski. It was so, so, SO easy to get into the game knowing these players. When I watched Sharks hockey I instantly knew who were the teams go to guys. Not even just the Sharks, I knew Zach Parise was a great player on the New Jersey Devils. Ryan Kesler was one of the best on the Vancouver Canucks. I remembered Alex Ovechkin long before the games but after getting into the game thanks to these players it was a lot easier to get into the Washington Capitals and Ovechkin as well. After the 2010 winter Olympics I immediately jumped into the NHL. Some of my earliest hockey memories include Ryan Miller getting a standing ovation in Pittsburgh and a less happy moment in Matt Cooke throwing a headshot on Marc Savard. And of course I followed the nearest team the San Jose Sharks. That season they ended up the top seed in the western conference. I was very nervous about them in the playoffs that season. I remember hearing on the news a year earlier that the best team in the NHL, the same San Jose Sharks, were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. Of course watching as much hockey shows as I did it was hard to not hear someone talking about the previous years failure. It was even worse when the Sharks dropped game one of the opening series to the eighth seed Colorado Avalance. Another memorable moment from that series was Dan Boyle scoring on his own goalie Evgeni Nabokov in game 3 in Denver. That same game saw Avalanche goalie Criag Anderson post a 51 save shutout and put the Sharks down 2-1 in the series. Things ended up OK for my team that year. San Jose went on to defeat Colorado 4-2 and then eliminate the back to back Stanley Cup finalist Detroit Red Wings in five games. Unfortunately the Sharks would get swept by eventual Cup champion Blackhawks in the conference finals. Thanks to the 2010 Olympics I still to this day go back and watch highlights from the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs. Every single series I watch. Maybe there have been better playoff seasons since then but that year remains my favorite. Maybe one reason is because I watched American Patrick Kane do well for the Chicago Blackhawks and was pulling for them because of him. Then of all people he scored the overtime Cup clinching goal.
If the NHL wasn't at the Olympics in 2010 I wouldn't be watching hockey today. I don't know how many people are in the same boat as I am. I have no clue how many Americans didn't watch hockey and now do thanks to that tournament. The same can be said for the 2014 tournament in Sochi, Russia. How many ignorant American fans quickly turned into hockey fans after the memorable shootout win vs Russia? How many people in St. Louis suddenly found out that the hero in that game T.J. Oshie was in their own backyard? How many people watched any of the competing national teams and found out that a great player was on his or her team and found it easy to follow that superstar? That will be a lot harder to do in the 2018 games. Before I say any more I want to say congratulations to the hockey rosters of USA and Canada. I don't want to make it sound like they are bad players or don't deserve to be at the Olympics. I don't want to make it sound like them being there is awful. As a hockey fan, they are there and I will be pulling for them. The NHL needs to be at the Olympics. Like I said earlier, It was so much easier for me to get into hockey when I knew what names to watch out for the second I turned the NHL on. It was incredibly easy to get into my team knowing Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle, Joe Pavelski and Evgeni Nabokov were in the Olympics. I couldn't do that this year. Unless team USA wins the gold medal I don't think I would be able to get much out of the tournament and I'm probably going back to watching basketball and baseball once the Olympics are over. I would stick with my hockey stereotype and perhaps never watch the NHL. Maybe a Team USA player will have a great tournament and get signed by a NHL club but that's potentially one player on one team who wasn't in the NHL beforehand. You may start watching your cities team because they signed that player and think he is great only to realize he wasn't in the NHL before the Olympics for a reason. He simply isn't a good enough player to be on a NHL team for 82 games plus the playoffs. What's easier to get into? A bunch of guys who can't make the best league in the world or are at best role players or hockey stars from the best league in the world? I think everyone gets why the NHL doesn't want to and isn't going to Pyeongchang. They make no money from going, they have to shut down their league for three weeks and only the best players go meaning their stars could get injured. When the NHL season resumes there is only a month and a half remaining and if a star player gets injured your season could be, for the lack of a better word, screwed. Yet, there isn't a better showcase for you league. If Team USA did well this year and the NHL was there what kind of players would you see. A 29 year old Patrick Kane, a league MVP, a three time Stanley Cup Champion still in his prime. Auston Matthews, someone who might be hard to sell in the U.S. because he plays in Toronto. He's one of the better players in the entire NHL. What if he went to the Olympics and had a great tournament? You'd be selling a 20 year old great young American. The same could be said for Jack Eichel, Johnny Gaudreau and other great Americans in the NHL young or old. Nothing I've said here is groundbreaking. I'm positive people have written better articles on why the NHL should go to the Olympics. This is just something I wanted to get off my chest. The NHL going to the Olympics is the reason I watch hockey. The NHL at the Olympics is the reason I've spent more money than I care to think about on NHL products. The NHL at the Olympics is the reason I write about hockey and would love to have a career covering the sport and the best league in the world. It was easy for me. It's not going to be as easy to get people into your league if your players aren't there. I have always been curious about how players are performing and what pace they are on in terms of points and goals. For me this lasts pretty much all season, starting way too soon in October and going all the way until game number 82. I think it's interesting to see what a player can potentially end up when at seasons end. At the same time it's not something you see very often. During TV broadcasts they don't often tell you every players stats and what they're on pace for. That's what we're going to do here today. Today I'll be showing you what every Washington Capital is on pace for in both goals and points. After that I'll show you what they ended up with last season just for comparison sake. Here we go... Alex Ovechkin -- 49 Goals, 87 Points, 82 GP Evgeny Kuznetsov -- 22 goals, 73 Points, 82 GP Nicklas Backstrom -- 15 Goals, 63 Points, 81 GP John Carlson -- 10 Goals, 63 Points, 82 GP T.J. Oshie -- 19 Goals, 52 Points, 76 GP Lars Eller -- 17 Goals, 37 Points, 81 GP Tom Wilson -- 10 Goals, 33 Points, 78 GP Jakub Vrana -- 17 Goals, 29 Points, 81 GP Dmitri Orlov -- 10 Goals, 27 Points, 82 GP Brett Connolly -- 22 Goals, 27 Points, 73 GP Matt Niskanen -- 6 Goals, 26 Points, 68 GP Devante Smith-Pelly -- 10 Goals, 22 Points, 79 GP Alex Chiasson -- 12 Goals, 17 Points, 78 GP Chandler Stephenson -- 3 Goals, 19 Points, 69 GP Madison Bowey -- 0 Goals, 18 Points, 74 GP Christian Djoos -- 5 Goals, 16 Points, 73 GP Andre Burakovsky -- 7 Goals, 19 Points, 57 GP Brooks Orpik -- 0 Goals, 11 Points, 82 GP Taylor Chorney -- 2 Goals, 9 Points, 57 GP The games played is the maximum a player can play. T.J. Oshie for example has played 42 of 48 games. If he stays healthy and plays the rest of the season he can only play in 76 games this season. based on his points per game over a 76 game season he could end up with 52 points. Now lets see how the Capitals did last season. Nicklas Backstrom -- 23 Goals, 86 Points, 82 GP Alex Ovechkin -- 33 Goals, 69 Points, 82 GP Evgeny Kuznetsov -- 19 Goals, 59 Points, 82 GP T.J. Oshie -- 33 Goals, 56 Points, 68 GP Matt Niskanen -- 5 Goals, 39 Points, 78 GP John Carlson -- 9 Goals, 37 Points, 72 GP Andre Burakovsky -- 12 Goals, 35 Points, 64 GP Dmitri Orlov -- 6 Goals, 33 Points, 82 GP Jay Beagle -- 13 Goals, 30 Points, 81 GP Lars Eller -- 12 Goals, 25 Points, 81 GP Brett Connolly -- 15 Goals, 23 Points, 66 GP Tom Wilson -- 7 Goals, 19 Points, 82 GP Brooks Orpik -- 0 Goals, 14 Points, 79 GP Jakub Vrana -- 3 Goals, 6 Points, 21 GP Taylor Chorney -- 1 Goal, 5 Points, 18 GP I'm not including players in their first year with the team, like Smith-Pelly, Chiasson or rookies like Bowey or Djoos. The players not included did not play enough or did not play for the Capitals at all. I'm also not including former players like Marcus Johansson or Justin Williams. What players catch your eye based on their last season stats compared to what they are on pace for this season? Ovechkin, on pace for nearly another fifty goal season and scoring nearly twenty more points. John Carlson is on pace for a career high 63 points. Maybe you look at someone like Connolly who's on pace for 22 goals despite not being a go to guy and on a super cheap contract. Does a weaker number catch your attention? Backstrom on pace for just 63 points. That would be a career low over an 82 game season for him. T.J. Oshie is on pace for 19 goals after scoring 33 last season. Andre Burakovsky can only play 57 games but is only on pace for 7 goals in those 57 games. Does any of this matter? Bottom line the Capitals at this point have played 48 games, they sit atop the Metro division yet again five points clear of the second place Devils, seven points up on the wild card and eight points above the playoffs cutoff line. They're on pace for 104 points as a team. I'm not sure many people had this team performing that well based on their last off-season. The team is the only thing to worry about, but nonetheless it's fun to see how the players are doing compared to last. CJ WittCJ has been following the Washington Capitals since the 2009-10 NHL season. Previously wrote about the Capitals for NovaCaps Back in November I pointed out some stats. High danger shots against and save percentages. I listed every teams high danger shots against per game and how many high danger shots both the starting goalie and the backup goalie faced per game. I also gave you the starters save percentage back in late November.
That was back when teams were around the twenty game mark. At that time only one team had played more than twenty games and no team had played less than seventeen. It was very early in the season. The Montreal Canadiens were the best team in the league and the New York Islanders were tied for last with Arizona. Doesn't that feel like forever ago? Now we're in late March. Every single team has played more than seventy games and we are in the final stretch of the season. What better time to update people on these stats. Just so everyone knows I will only be posting the stats of playoff teams or teams likely to make the playoffs. For the teams outside of the playoffs, maybe we'll revisit them at a later date. For right now we're just going to look at the sixteen teams that are currently in the playoffs. So here is how it will look: Team-Starting goalie-high dangers shots against per game-starters save%. (FYI, it's not high danger shots against per game for the team TOTAL, it's just how many high danger shots per game teams give up with their starter in net.) Eastern Conference: Washington-Holtby-5.08-83.16% Columbus-Bobrovsky-5.26-85.76% New York R-Lundqvist-5.19-83.77% Pittsburgh-Murray-5.27-82.38% Montreal-Price-4.56-86.06% Boston-Rask-3.77-77.63% Ottawa-Anderson-5.09-82.74% Toronto-Andersen-5.23-83.50% Western Conference: Chicago-Crawford-5.29-83.86% Minnesota-Dubnyk-3.54-81.34% Nashville-Rinne-3.96-77.10% St Louis-Allen-4.00-80.66% San Jose-Jones-5.00-83.79% Anaheim-Gibson-4.26-81.34% Edmonton-Talbot-5.63-81.69% Calgary-Elliott-4.50-81.48% So this I think tells you which teams are better defensively and which goalies can bail their team out more. A team like Boston is an interesting one, They don't allow that much high danger shots but Rask's save% is not great compared to others. Columbus on the other hand is 3rd worst among the goalies and teams we see here but Bobrovsky has a high save%. So which of those two teams would you rather face in a playoff series? A team that doesn't allow much but their goalie can't bail them out or a team that allows chances but their goalie is good at helping out the defense? I'll come back to these numbers once the regular season is over and playoff series are set. For now sit back and choose which team or goalie you want to see your team play in the playoffs. CJ Witt |
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